Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 22.457622 24.407702 26.507596 28.946842 31.714855 34.773127 38.428091
2026-01-18 19.150118 21.787095 24.820259 28.605807 33.259083 38.866800 46.253405
2026-01-25 16.976812 19.995939 23.650014 28.480317 34.826901 43.076684 54.959434
2026-02-01 15.422324 18.672425 22.770831 28.453394 36.359409 47.354770 64.575134
2026-02-08 14.190221 17.570111 21.978653 28.342510 37.647402 51.398689 74.698114
2026-02-15 13.190782 16.643298 21.277663 28.205350 38.792135 55.334202 85.552356
2026-02-22 12.350230 15.836663 20.634224 28.030093 39.791298 59.142400 97.153353
2026-03-01 11.684943 15.204970 20.160043 28.020549 41.001841 63.463153 110.952759
2026-03-08 11.115108 14.655893 19.744002 28.031259 42.211596 67.967593 126.593062
2026-03-15 10.821469 14.476063 19.848126 28.859372 44.914378 75.780055 152.670540
2026-03-22 10.282301 13.893006 19.285146 28.520390 45.460321 79.423460 170.125123
2026-03-29 9.859640 13.454952 18.909616 28.450662 46.482111 84.262137 193.110735
2026-04-05 9.516967 13.128676 18.703914 28.686159 48.197539 91.213811 227.043610
2026-04-12 9.095332 12.656294 18.230381 28.402151 48.846005 95.907368 257.106685
2026-04-19 8.744387 12.273834 17.876492 28.299558 49.858478 101.797000 296.390815
2026-04-26 8.438168 11.943915 17.585370 28.281794 51.049653 108.514196 345.580597
2026-05-03 8.141075 11.611457 17.265800 28.175509 52.026913 114.963040 400.986044
2026-05-10 7.862134 11.293168 16.948526 28.040984 52.918690 121.473353 465.597003
2026-05-17 7.597497 10.984556 16.627733 27.867776 53.693461 127.915024 540.290005
2026-05-24 7.376678 10.737333 16.399111 27.858563 54.869987 136.107604 643.058037
2026-05-31 7.173454 10.509386 16.190196 27.869290 56.101862 145.002125 773.647167
2026-06-07 7.097291 10.491685 16.359237 28.690669 59.595763 163.721464 1063.354587
2026-06-14 6.867555 10.200237 16.006895 28.354489 59.910595 170.305467 1246.919026